—- 主なトピック —-
イスラエルーイラン、米国に核施設への爆撃、数年は核開発は停止するとの米国側見解。CNN他はさほど抑止効果はないと報道し、大統領、広報官共に、憤慨。石油、株価は、さほど動かず、むしろ歓迎、も、ホルムズ海峡封鎖云々については石油価格が敏感に反応し、米イラン協議予定。
米国ステーブルコインの、GENIUS法案が、上院から下院受理済み。
中国人民元の、デジタル人民元の国際決済システムを、上海で構築すると、会合で発表
BISが、中央銀行向けに注意喚起、ステーブルコインへの対応を急ぐべき、総額オーナー把握目的の帳簿と、国債のオーナー把握帳簿等も作るべきと。
日本国金融庁、暗号資産の規制法律を、資金決済法から金商法適応への移行を検討等につき審議会総会で、検討開始。 専門家の認識は、非常に浅はか。かつステーブルコインのBISの警告は、認識せず、理解も無理そう。 （資料）＞暗号資産を巡る制度のあり方に関する検討について（暗号資産制度に関するワーキンググループ（仮称）の設置について）金融審議会総会 令和７年６月25日 1.pdf
ハーバード留学生、受け入れVISA発行停止→ 政府が停止するのは、とりあえず停止命令でて、結果、開始。
新日鉄のUSスチール買収→ 黄金株で承認。新日鉄側はトランプ大統領の英断と賞賛。
米国関税 収束点見えず、継続。対する一律１０％関税の発想のもととなったであろう、日本の消費税の動向は、参院選を前にした都議会選では、自民大敗、公明も。
鉄・アルミの関税注目。
OpenAI､NPO側に軸を戻すか→ マイクロソフトは株主としてインセンティブなくなる気がするが、逆にOpenAIがMSFTを訴えるか？という中で、とはいえ提携は継続する予定というのが直近。
METAが、OpenAIの技術者に、１億ドルのサイニングボーナスを提示。も、誰も応じていないとOpenAIのCEO言。
METAが、GitHubの創業CEO、他を招聘、Openモデルが有利な気配がみえはじめる。
東京都議会議員選は、YouTubeのローカルオーディエンスロジックのウェイトの瞬間効果で票が偏る。も、前回の都知事選の教訓は保守レガシー政党はさほど学ばないまま。政策議論は徐々にネットメディアではじまるも、まだ実際の国政の知識との差は遠い。
—- 中長期トレンド —-
日本国債、入札インパクト
EV､全固体電池､水素系FuelCell
建設系、建築費関連インパクト
NTTが全株取得予定のNTTデーター、データセンターのREIT、シンガポール上場予定につき再度ニュース化する
— Main Topics —
Israel-Iran Conflict:
The U.S. reportedly launched airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, expecting Iran’s nuclear development to be halted for several years. While CNN and other outlets suggest limited deterrent effects, both the U.S. President and Press Secretary expressed outrage. Oil and stock markets reacted mildly or even positively, though oil prices spiked in response to potential threats to close the Strait of Hormuz. U.S.-Iran talks are reportedly scheduled.
The U.S. GENIUS Act for stablecoins has been accepted by the House after passing the Senate.
China announced at a summit that it will establish an international settlement system for the digital yuan in Shanghai.
BIS Statement:
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has issued a warning to central banks, urging swift responses to stablecoins. It recommends creating ledgers to track total ownership as well as ledgers for government bond ownership.
Japan Financial Services Agency (FSA):
At a full session of the Financial System Council, the FSA began discussing shifting crypto asset regulation from the Payment Services Act to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act. Expert understanding appears shallow, and the BIS’s warning on stablecoins seems largely unrecognized or not understood.
(Reference: Document titled “Examination of the Framework for Crypto Asset Regulation” – Working Group on Crypto Asset Systems (tentative name), June 25, 2025) 1.pdf
Harvard Student Visa Suspension:
Although the government initially issued an order to suspend visas for incoming Harvard students, the measure was lifted and issuance has resumed.
Nippon Steel’s Acquisition of U.S. Steel:
Approved through the use of a golden share. Nippon Steel praised former President Trump’s decisive leadership.
U.S. Tariffs:
No clear resolution in sight. Japan’s consumption tax may have served as an inspiration for the idea of a uniform 10% tariff. Ahead of Japan’s Upper House elections, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party suffered major losses; the Komeito Party also affected.
Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum are a key area of focus.
OpenAI:
Rumors suggest a possible shift back to its nonprofit roots. Microsoft’s shareholder incentives could be weakened, raising speculation that OpenAI might even sue Microsoft. Still, the partnership is expected to continue for now.
META:
Reportedly offered $100 million signing bonuses to OpenAI engineers, but none have accepted so far, according to OpenAI’s CEO.
META Strategy:
META has recruited GitHub’s founding CEO and others, signaling momentum toward open-source models.
The Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly by-election:
showed vote distortions caused by the momentary influence of YouTube’s local audience algorithm. Despite lessons from the previous gubernatorial election, traditional conservative parties have learned little. Policy debates are gradually beginning on online media, but there remains a significant gap between those discussions and real national policy understanding.
— Medium- to Long-Term Trends —
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Japanese Government Bond Auctions: Potential impact from auction outcomes.
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EV & Energy Tech: Solid-state batteries and hydrogen-based fuel cells gaining attention.
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Construction Sector: Cost impacts in the building and infrastructure domain.
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NTT Data Privatization: As NTT prepares to acquire all shares of NTT Data, news is resurfacing about a potential REIT listing of their data centers in Singapore.
