—- 主なトピック —-
イスラエルーイラン、イスラエルの主要戦略施設、爆撃よる被害著しく、停戦の意向へ。
エプスタイン・ファイルは、一転なかったことになる方向へ。トランプ支持者の一部は不満。
イロンマスク、ＥＶ補助金カットに怒りをあらわにし、新党設立か。
米国ステーブルコイン、カンザス連銀の元理事が、米国債の需要との関係について少しだけコメント。
中国人民元の、デジタル人民元の国際決済システムを、上海で構築すると、会合で発表 → 特にうごきなし
BISが、中央銀行向けに注意喚起、ステーブルコインへの対応を急ぐべき、総額オーナー把握目的の帳簿と、国債のオーナー把握帳簿等も作るべきと。
日本国金融庁、暗号資産の規制法律を、資金決済法から金商法適応への移行を検討等につき審議会総会で、検討開始。 専門家の認識は、非常に浅はか。かつステーブルコインのBISの警告は、認識せず、理解も無理そう。 （資料）＞暗号資産を巡る制度のあり方に関する検討について（暗号資産制度に関するワーキンググループ（仮称）の設置について）金融審議会総会 令和７年６月25日 1.pdf → ７月１日付人事で、日銀出身のを財務省のステーブルコイン系の「デジタル通貨企画官」に任命で財務省の対応は世界最速レベルで相変わらず早い、も、日銀、日銀ルーキーも伴にBISの認識に追いついている気配はなく、あまり深そうではない。 参考 日本銀行と金融庁、組織の境界を越えて働く2人の思いとは – xTECH 参考：日銀 【挨拶】神山理事「デジタル社会における決済システムのあるべき姿を考える」（第9回中央銀行デジタル通貨に関する連絡協議会） : 日本銀行 Bank of Japan
ハーバード留学生、受け入れVISA発行停止→ 政府が停止するのは、とりあえず停止命令でて、結果、開始。
新日鉄のUSスチール買収→ 黄金株で承認。新日鉄側はトランプ大統領の英断と賞賛。
米国関税 収束点見えず、継続。対する一律１０％関税の発想のもととなったであろう、日本の消費税の動向は、参院選を前にした都議会選では、自民大敗、公明も。
鉄・アルミの関税注目。 → ８月１日付で、対日では、25％の相互関税。韓国→米も２５％
OpenAI､NPO側に軸を戻すか→ マイクロソフトは株主としてインセンティブなくなる気がするが、逆にOpenAIがMSFTを訴えるか？という中で、とはいえ提携は継続する予定というのが直近。
METAが、OpenAIの技術者に、１億ドルのサイニングボーナスを提示。も、誰も応じていないとOpenAIのCEO言。→ その後、キーマンが複数移動
METAが、GitHubの創業CEO、他を招聘、Openモデルが有利な気配がみえはじめる。 → ７月７日の週に、OpenAIは、OpenSourceモデルに言及。
東京都議会議員選は、YouTubeのローカルオーディエンスロジックのウェイトの瞬間効果で票が偏る。も、前回の都知事選の教訓は保守レガシー政党はさほど学ばないまま。政策議論は徐々にネットメディアではじまるも、まだ実際の国政の知識との差は遠い。 → 参院選開始で新興政党をTＶもカバー開始の様子も、議論のレベルは大局観なく、与党側との嚙み合った議論はじめにくく、与党も大局観があるのか不明で、したがって当然ビジョンもない現状がつづく。
—- 中長期トレンド —-
日本国債、入札インパクト
EV､全固体電池､水素系FuelCell
建設系、建築費関連インパクト
NTTが全株取得予定のNTTデーター、データセンターのREIT、シンガポール上場予定につき再度ニュース化する → 日本のREIT市場との比較など、継続中
— Main Topics —
-
Israel–Iran Conflict:
Israel’s major strategic facilities have suffered severe damage from airstrikes, and both sides appear to be moving toward a ceasefire. -
Epstein Files:
The issue seems to be quietly shelved. Some Trump supporters are expressing dissatisfaction. -
Elon Musk:
Outraged by the cut in EV subsidies, Musk is reportedly considering launching a new political party. -
U.S. Stablecoins:
A former Kansas Federal Reserve Board member made brief comments on the relationship between stablecoins and U.S. Treasury demand. -
China:
China announced at a summit that it will build an international settlement system for the digital yuan in Shanghai → No further developments at this time. -
BIS Warning:
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has issued a warning to central banks, urging prompt responses to stablecoins. It recommends the creation of ledgers to track total ownership and government bond holders. -
Japan – Financial Regulation:
The Financial Services Agency (FSA) has begun discussions at a Council General Meeting on transitioning crypto asset regulations from the Payment Services Act to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act.
→ Experts’ understanding is extremely shallow. The BIS’s warning about stablecoins is neither recognized nor likely understood.
(Reference material: “Review on the Framework for Crypto Asset Regulation” – Working Group on Crypto Asset Systems [tentative name], Financial System Council, June 25, 2025)
→ In a July 1 personnel move, a former Bank of Japan official was appointed as “Digital Currency Planning Officer” at the Ministry of Finance, showing Japan’s characteristically fast response—among the fastest globally. However, both the Bank of Japan and its rookies seem far from catching up with BIS-level understanding. Their grasp of the issue appears superficial.
References:-
“What Two People Working Across the Boundaries of the Bank of Japan and the FSA Hope to Achieve” – xTECH
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BOJ Executive Director Kamiyama’s Remarks: “Considering the Ideal Payment System in a Digital Society” (9th Meeting on Central Bank Digital Currency)
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Harvard Student Visa:
The government issued an order to suspend visa issuance for a Harvard student. → Ultimately, the process resumed. -
Nippon Steel & U.S. Steel:
The acquisition was approved through the use of a golden share. Nippon Steel praised former President Trump for his decisive action. -
U.S. Tariffs:
No resolution in sight.
→ The idea of a flat 10% tariff may have been inspired by Japan’s consumption tax.
In the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election ahead of the Upper House election, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party suffered a major defeat, with Komeito also impacted. -
Steel & Aluminum Tariffs:
→ As of August 1, a 25% reciprocal tariff is in place for Japan. South Korea also faces a 25% tariff on exports to the U.S. -
OpenAI:
The organization may shift back toward a nonprofit model.
→ Microsoft, as a shareholder, may lose incentive; some speculate OpenAI could sue Microsoft. Still, both sides intend to maintain their partnership for now. -
META & Talent:
META offered $100 million signing bonuses to OpenAI engineers, but none accepted, according to OpenAI’s CEO. → Several key personnel have since moved to other companies. -
META Strategy:
META has recruited GitHub’s founding CEO and others. Momentum appears to be building in favor of the open-source model.
→ In the week of July 7, OpenAI made references to open-source models. -
Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly Election:
The results were skewed by the short-term effects of YouTube’s local audience algorithm.
→ Conservative legacy parties have not learned much from past elections such as the 2020 gubernatorial race.
While policy debates are starting to emerge on online media, there remains a large gap from actual policy expertise.
→ As the Upper House election begins, TV is starting to cover new political parties, but discussions lack strategic vision. Meaningful debates with ruling parties are difficult, and it remains unclear whether the ruling side itself has a clear outlook. As a result, no compelling vision is currently being presented.
— Medium- to Long-Term Trends —
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Japanese Government Bonds:
Market impact from auction results. -
EV Technology:
Developments in solid-state batteries and hydrogen fuel cells. -
Construction Sector:
Ongoing impact from rising construction and building costs. -
NTT & REITs:
NTT plans to acquire all shares of NTT Data.
The data center REIT is scheduled to list on the Singapore Exchange, bringing renewed attention.
→ Ongoing comparisons with Japan’s REIT market.
